Subject: Re: Competition by internal expertise for F/OSS vendors
From: Santiago Gala <sgala@hisitech.com>
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:44:22 +0000

El mié, 27-08-2008 a las 01:00 +0000, simo escribió:
> On Tue, 2008-08-26 at 20:36 -0400, Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:
> > On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
> > >
> > > http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> > >
> > > Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
> > > there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
> > > share.
> > >
> > http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> > 
> > I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
> > and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
> > a commercial user of GNU since 1993.
> 
> Sorry but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little market
> take by Ubuntu. How long before Canonical runs out of money ?
> 

Notice that here (Spain) I have seen a number of non-computer savvy
people migrating from Vista to Ubuntu (always ubuntu, empirical result)
because they didn't want to install cracked software, they can't afford
MS Office, and they were fed up with the problems of viruses and
upgrades in Vista. This is mostly people which really uses the computer
only to browse and/or office tasks.

I've also seen "in the wild" a person (Philologist) that has Open Office
installed under Vista Home and is thinking seriously about "installing
linux instead of Vista", as she was again fed up with it. I'm quite sure
that offering help to install would be all that is needed for a
migration to start. All software she uses is:
- camera download
- basic office suite (Open Office)
- browser (she installed opera because MSIE broke with upgrades, has
firefox too)
- webmail for email
- skype
- MSN (she can work with pidgin or a similar one, no problem with less
fancies)

This was an interesting case for me, as she is not savvy neither has any
close friend that is, except casual acquaintances. So "brownian
motion" (cumulative impact of lots of small support hints, emails, IM
chats, ...) seems to drive people closer to free software and away from
microsoft nowadays.

Not sure how is ubuntu going to crack the big monopoly of initial
installs, though, but in this scenario some laws (in some European
countries, for instance) forcing to mark up separately the price of the
hardware and OS could make Ubuntu grow *very* fast.

Regards
Santiago

> Simo.
>