Subject: Re: "I've got more programmers than you"
From: "Stephen J. Turnbull" <turnbull@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp>
Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2001 19:56:37 +0900

>>>>> "Geoff" == Geoff Crawshaw <gcrawshaw@openair.com> writes:

    Geoff> Doesn't the existence of a strong FSB offering in a market
    Geoff> segment tend to erode the economic value of the non-FSB
    Geoff> participants in that segment?

Of course!

But that is a static analysis.  This is a very dynamic indsutry.  What
I'm advocating is the view that OSS or no OSS, the dinosaurs have to
evolve or die.  This is true in all industries with rapid
technological change.  So OSS as such is not a particularly separate
threat.  Something would take its place (small non-FSBs, new products
from other dinosaurs) if OSS didn't exist.

What's different with OSS is that the rather unprofitable "competitive
fringe" left behind no longer even needs to be particularly
business-like; student projects building on high-grade OSS products
etc are going to make it tough going for development-oriented FSBs.

That is, my feeling is that OSS projects, including FSBs are going to
tend to eat each others' lunches, not Oracle's.  Oracle is already
moving upmarket.


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