Subject: Re: I believe your VA numbers
From: "Stephen J. Turnbull" <turnbull@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp>
Date: Sat, 11 Dec 1999 17:03:38 +0900 (JST)

>>>>> "Ben" == Ben Tilly <Ben_Tilly@trepp.com> writes:

    Ben> Stephen Turnbull wrote:

    >> > Of course the purchasing power and name recognition from the
    >> > stock price will help increase their real value, but the Linux
    >> > bubble is going to pop at some point and it will NOT be pretty.

    >> Yup.  But the people at VAR don't have to take those numbers
    >> seriously; if they are planning for the eventual "pop" they can
    >> ride it out.

    Ben> That is not what concerns me.

    Ben> What concerns me is that a lot of people are hearing the word
    Ben> "Linux" today because of stock valuations.
[...]
    Ben> The resulting pop could well result in a lasting consumer
    Ben> impression that Linux was this huge flash in the pan where
    Ben> everyone lost their shirts.

So?  If RedHat is still there, and VAR is still there, and GNU, and
Apache, and XFree86, a financial crash will scare a few people who
would be just as well off using Microsoft products anyway.  The people
who need Linux, will still need Linux, they will still be able to get
high quality systems with excellent support, and Linux will bounce
back up, and go for the KO in the second round.

Free software does not need a mountain of capital to survive, and even
if all of the current IPOs crash through the floor and disappear, I'm
going to continue using Linux, or maybe a *BSD.  Aren't you?  And it
will have fairly small effect on Debian and GNU and the kernel and
many of the important thrid party projects.

It will make it harder to be a Linux-oriented VAR or ISV for a while.
Pity, that.  But it's not a knockout blow.

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