Subject: Re: Larry Ellison on FSBs
From: "Ben Tilly" <>
Date: Mon, 24 Apr 2006 20:44:44 -0700

 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 20:44:44 -0700
On 4/24/06, Thomas Lord <> wrote:
> Ben Tilly wrote:
> > Between PostGres and MySql, Oracle's current business model is toast
> > within a decade or so, and there isn't much they can do about that
> > reality.  Given the level of lock-in that people have with databases,
> > they'll take a good while dying.  They may find new businesses to be
> > in.  But their current business is doomed.
> Well, ok, one part where you're wrong.  You say: "there isn't much
> they can do about that."   On the contrary.  Oracle has the luxuries
> of planning, delaying, experimenting, outspending -- in short, Oracle
> has the opportunity to get open source business models right rather
> than growing-while-flying-by-seat-of-pants.

You obviously haven't read Tom Christensen's books on the topic. 
Established companies usually try the planning, delaying, outspending
etc approach and it consistently fails badly for subtle but fairly
universal organizational reasons.  If you care, then read the books,
but I won't try to summarize Christensen's analysis of why it happens.
 Just accept that it does.