Subject: RE: Larry Ellison on FSBs
From: "Anderson, Kelly" <KAnderson@dentrix.com>
Date: Thu, 27 Apr 2006 21:56:09 -0600

 Thu, 27 Apr 2006 21:56:09 -0600
> CC's theory says that as disruptive innovation heats up, you 
> expect to see a pattern where incumbents flee markets as the 
> innovators enter them.  As long as that motion continues to 
> be one-directional, the incumbent eventually runs out of 
> places to flee.

That's a very interesting picture you've drawn.
 
> Given how slowly the database market moves, I wouldn't expect 
> to hear that Oracle was in great trouble this year or the 
> next.  But over the next 10 years, the writing is pretty 
> clear on the wall.

You know, I said the same thing about Novell in 1995, and while shrunk,
there is still a big grey building with their name on it south of
town... If we learned anything from the Y2K issue, it was that quite
often "good enough" software has a VERY long shelf life. It's just too
hard to rewrite. Take this from someone who is currently rewriting a
program written back in 1990...
 
> A number of examples show that FSB can be more than just a 
> lifestyle business.  However I'd heartily agree that the 
> biggest FS business opportunities are situations where open 
> source enables some other business.

Agreed.

-Kelly





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