Subject: Tom W. Bell paper
From: Don Marti <>
Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 21:03:04 -0700

Paper about how to connect markets to R&D incentives
without monopolies:

    "Prediction markets offer another way to promote
    the sciences and useful arts. In general,
    prediction markets support transactions in claims
    about unresolved questions of fact. A prediction
    market specifically designed to promote progress
    in the sciences and useful arts - call it a
    scientific prediction exchange or SPEx - would
    support transactions in a variety of prediction
    certificates, each one of which promises to pay
    its bearer in the event that an associated claim
    about science, technology, or public policy comes
    true. Like other, similar markets in information,
    a scientific prediction exchange would aggregate,
    measure, and share the opinions of people paid
    to find the truth."

This is interesting, but is a market in science and
technology really a prediction market, if you could
use your cold fusion futures to hedge your oil stocks,
or use factoring algorithm futures to hedge your
quantum crypto startup?

Don Marti                      LinuxWorld: August 14-17, 2006, San Francisco