Subject: Re: Tom W. Bell paper
From: <>
Date: Sat, 2 Sep 2006 16:36:39 +0900

Don Marti writes:
 > As an electricity customer, you're already taking
 > risks in the energy market.  What if you could offset
 > those risks by taking a position on the "no" side
 > of the energy-efficient computer prediction market?
 > Yes, the market is just moving risk, but it's not just
 > moving it from one R&D area to another, but into R&D
 > from a non-R&D market.

No, it's just moving it from a non-R&D, non-prediction market into a
non-R&D, prediction market.  As Tom points out very carefully, this is
not at all a market for R&D.  It's a market for hedging.  That's good
for the electric company and its investors, which may have
"trickle-down" effects on R&D.  But no funds from the market itself
will be automatically allocated to R&D, and there is no guarantee of
trickle-down effects, as the board may decide they'd prefer to spend
the freed-up reserves speculating in prediction markets.