Subject: Re: Speculating on where the distro market is going
From: "Forrest J. Cavalier III" <>
Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2006 10:24:45 -0400

Federico Lucifredi wrote:

> Gentlemen -
>   I have been pondering on the not so subtle signals Oracle has been 
> giving out, and in the last two days I more or less stabilized my 
> outlook as the following. Please, tear it up ;-)
> Everyone's current reading of the market is that Oracle is going farther 
> than already announced with Ubuntu.  Two scenarios pop out from all the 
> possible futures: (a) Oracle extends said partnership, to a point where 

There was some interesting analysis of commodity markets in the last
decade which make a pretty strong case that all such markets tend toward
3 dominant players, with a bunch of fringe stragglers.  There is only
room for 3 dominant players.  And there IS room for 3 dominant players.
Getting above 30% market share is hard.  Other interesting conclusions
about mergers, competition, and buyouts.

I remember reading a series of articles in IEEE Computer Magazine, but cannot
recall the author.  But I remember it opened my eyes to explain a lot
of the dynamics in a lot of different markets.