Subject: Re: So... Re: offering pre-purchases
From: Santiago Gala <sgala@hisitech.com>
Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2007 09:16:43 +0200


El mar, 23-10-2007 a las 06:03 +0900, Stephen J. Turnbull escribió:
(...)
> That is, the amount of technological risk involved in the bets you
> mention are second order compared to the business risks of the
> mainline.  Think about it: as humans go, engineers are pretty
> reliable.  They solve problems, that's what they do.  1TB storage
> media *will* be in the range where it makes sense to attach them to a
> $500 large screen HDTV in 5 years or so.  By contrast, consumers are
> unreliable, they do whatever they damn please.  We don't know if
> consumers ever will care to buy 1TB storage media, what with
> innovations in networking.  Ditto XML merge algorithms; it's just not
> a big enough part of the bottom line for VCs to worry much about the
> risk that Tom will make it unnecessary for them to pay royalties on
> merge algorithm patents the day after they sign a 5-year contract.
> 

There is a big logical jump here: consumers don't care (shouldn't care)
at all about technology. They care about being able to store all of
their music collection in a small box with 10 hours batteries, or about
having their photograph collection close and easy to browse, or about
commuting at 1/10th of the current cost, etc.

This gap is precisely what makes it interesting the field. Quite often a
big technological change does not put us quite there, while the
subsequent small one (tech or production chain, business, etc.) makes
suddenly for a very hot field.

Regards
Santiago