Subject: Re: Competition by internal expertise for F/OSS vendors
From: simo <s@ssimo.org>
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:13:28 +0000

On Wed, 2008-08-27 at 13:00 -0400, Luis Villa wrote:
> On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 9:00 PM, simo <s@ssimo.org> wrote:
> > On Tue, 2008-08-26 at 20:36 -0400, Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:
> >> On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@gmail.com> wrote:
> >> > Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
> >> >
> >> > http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> >> >
> >> > Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
> >> > there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
> >> > share.
> >> >
> >> http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> >>
> >> I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
> >> and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
> >> a commercial user of GNU since 1993.
> >
> > Sorry but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little market
> > take by Ubuntu. How long before Canonical runs out of money ?
> 
> Sorry, but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little
> market take by Red Hat. How long before Red Hat runs out of money?
> 
> --Sun, c. 1998
> 
> [Astounded that the average RH perspective on Ubuntu *still* looks a
> lot like this: http://wondermark.com/d/437.html Yes, their model is
> flawed, but they have *huge* uptake and a very, very strong user
> experience.]

I recognize the potential, but after a few years it still is just a
potential. I would love to see a distribution get market share in the
desktop area, but without a sustainable business model it won't happen.

I am sure in the long run one distribution or another will find a way,
simply because people really want to have Linux on their PCs today (yes
I too have met more and more non-technical people that use Linux) and
hardware vendors are starting experimenting with it (see the eeepc for
example).

So my question should have been better framed as: do we have some
evidence that Canonical have found a viable business model and can move
forward ?
It is critical to asses whether Ubuntu will actually be the Microsoft
and Apple competitor and not just the fashion of the moment.

Simo.