Subject: Re: Competition by internal expertise for F/OSS vendors
From: simo <s@ssimo.org>
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:17:01 +0000

On Thu, 2008-08-28 at 08:03 -0700, Rich Bodo wrote:
> >  I think it's pretty likely that the next generation
> > of phones (the ones that come with the mind-killer of TV) are going to
> > kill personal computers as we know them pretty much dead. 
> Why will that happen?
> 
> Not because computing power is no longer compelling: History tells us 
> that compelling new applications lead to markets for specialized 
> hardware, which will always be replaced by general purpose hardware as 
> power increases.  As mind-blowing as the next specialized piece of 
> hardware is, the next piece of gp hardware is just as compelling.
> 
> The argument must be that compute-intensive applications are shifting to 
> remote server farms.  I would certainly agree with that trend, but I 
> don't see that changing PCs much in this generation.  In another 10 
> years maybe - just enough time to build a strong FOSS installed base and 
> community on mobile devices. The glass is half full yet!  ;)

I think you underestimate the power of neater graphics (which require a
lot of *local* computing power) in consumer products. Especially if we
are going to see true 3D work environments at some point.

Simo.