Subject: Re: I believe your VA numbers
From: "Stephen J. Turnbull" <turnbull@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp>
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 1999 11:10:43 +0900 (JST)

>>>>> "Crispin" == Crispin Cowan <crispin@cse.ogi.edu> writes:

    Crispin> Ben_Tilly@trepp.com wrote:

    >> *BOGGLE*

:-)

    >> Of course the purchasing power and name recognition from the
    >> stock price will help increase their real value, but the Linux
    >> bubble is going to pop at some point and it will NOT be pretty.

Yup.  But the people at VAR don't have to take those numbers
seriously; if they are planning for the eventual "pop" they can ride
it out.

    Crispin> I suspect (also IMHO) that what is driving this
    Crispin> particularly goofy bubble is the relative scarcity of
    Crispin> Linux shares.  By only offering a few shares and a tiny
    Crispin> fraction of the company's value, VA made owning a piece
    Crispin> of VA a scarce proposition, driving up the price.

This is certainly a common pattern historically.

    Crispin> On a global scale, I continue to believe that this stock
    Crispin> market is soooo goofy because of the amazing amount of
    Crispin> money pouring into the stock market itself, altering the
    Crispin> supply:demand mix.  When the baby boomers start retiring
    Crispin> en masse in 2010, money will start to pour back out of
    Crispin> the market, and valuations will fall back to a sane
    Crispin> level.

This _is_ the main chance, but Indonesia, Russia, China, and Japan
_could_ all get their act together simultaneously in that decade, and
Japan's miracle growth phase will look like the proverbial molehill.

And all of these places (including my current host country) are weak
on the concept of intellectual property.  Companies and industries
which are based on repudiating revenues from IP licensing (ie, free
software) will be well-positioned there.

The "China goes Linux" play is far-fetched, but with high returns if
it pays off at all, I think.

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